At Wednesday’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. This decision comes amidst conflicting economic signals. Tailing that, there is the Chicago PMI, Non-farm Payrolls, and the full release of the Consumer Confidence report. All of these are expected to match current economic conditions.
The prior week’s GDP numbers also factor into the equation, informing that economic growth has slowed this year compared to the previous year for Quarter 1. The PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred choice of inflation indicators, has shown inflation is within expectations but the whole picture is clear.
PCI Index
Prices in the U.S. jumped again in March based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, signaling that progress on reducing inflation has stalled. The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% gain.
GDP
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that the U.S. economy is “firing on all cylinders” even as the GDP report showed economic growth coming in well below economists expectations.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% with the current rate at 6.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.07% with the current rate at 7.17%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.03% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.02% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.96%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 207,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.
What’s Ahead
Prior to the most recent data reports, there was high optimism that the Federal Reserve would cut rates this Wednesday. With a clear picture with data to back it up, those initial expectations have tempered significantly.